Apple CEO Tim Prepare dinner (R) greets prospects as he attends the grand opening occasion of the brand new Apple retailer at The Grove on November 19, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.

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Peloton may be on the market. (Or, perhaps not fairly but, in the event you suppose the new CEO could have sufficient time to proper the ship.)

On Friday, information broke in The Wall Avenue Journal that Amazon was having a look at Peloton. Later, it got here out that Nike was too. After which we bought a repeat of the identical M&A fanfiction that is been occurring since earlier than Peloton went public: What about Apple?

A number of the greatest Apple-watchers thought it was prone to be a critical dialogue inside Apple. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, wrote Sunday night time Apple may purchase Peloton as a defensive transfer towards a Massive Tech rival like Amazon grabbing it first. He referred to as the potential acquisition a “strategic match.”

Many others have thought the identical for years now, and Apple is correct again within the dialog now that we all know a Peloton sale is extra seemingly now than it has ever been.

However there are way more causes Apple will determine to take a tough move on Peloton, if its historical past has been any information.

Apple not often makes massive acquisitions. Peloton’s market cap was a bit greater than $12 billion by Tuesday afternoon. Apple has by no means even come shut to purchasing an organization that enormous. Its largest acquisition up to now was Beats for $3 billion.

Moreover that, nearly each different acquisition has been too small for Apple to satisfy the necessities to report them. We normally solely discover out about an Apple acquisition after somebody within the press experiences on it.

Apple tends to purchase corporations for his or her expertise and workers. These are referred to as “acquihires,” which is when a bigger firm buys a smaller one and integrates their staff and expertise into new or present merchandise. For instance, your iPhone’s climate app bought a giant replace final yr as a result of Apple acquihired an organization that made a climate app referred to as Darkish Sky.

Apple is obsessive about making its personal {hardware} and software program, and holding excessive revenue margins. Peloton makes big Android tablets with clunky software program, linked to train gear. Plus, Peloton continues to lose cash and its margins would put a drag on Apple’s personal margins if the 2 corporations merged.

Pelton’s fourth-quarter earnings report from Tuesday morning paints a dismal image for the corporate’s 2022. The corporate reported disappointing subscriber numbers, canceled plans to construct a $400 million manufacturing unit in Ohio and fired 2,800 staff. It is exhausting to think about what Apple would discover interesting in that report.

Apple would not want Peloton’s subscribers. Peloton has 6.6 million subscribers, a comparatively tiny quantity in comparison with the 785 million paid subscribers Apple says it has via App Retailer apps. Plus, a few of these Apple subscribers embody Peloton prospects who signed up via the App Retailer, that means Apple already will get a lower of a few of Peloton’s subscription income in the present day.

However wait! Could not Apple shock us prefer it did when it purchased Beats? Positive, if you wish to evaluate stationary bikes to LeBron’s favourite headphones.

Apple purchased Beats primarily for its streaming music service, which it reworked into Apple Music a yr after the businesses merged. On high of that, Beats had a worthwhile headphones enterprise that could possibly be improved with Apple’s expertise. (Simply take a look at in the present day’s Beats headphones, that are stuffed with the identical slick tech you discover in AirPods.)

Apple wanted the streaming music service Beats already had in place with a purpose to get a bounce available on the market chief Spotify. Take note, this was eight years in the past, early in Apple’s transition to rising its digital companies enterprise. Streaming music was a pure place to start out.

In Peloton’s case, Apple would not want a streaming health service (it already has one), and it would not appear prone to begin making treadmills or stationary bikes that lose cash.

As a substitute, development in Apple’s health enterprise will come from the place it all the time has: Apple Watch gross sales (which proceed to develop) and compatibility with different health gear, like at Equinox gyms, or lessons, like at Orange Idea.

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